Onshore Refineries

New refinery projects and large refinery expansions (>$100M) tend to be multi-billion dollar endeavors with very high throughputs. A 200,000 bpd refinery produces on the order of $10–16 million worth of fuel products per day (assuming ~$70–80/bbl product value).

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Thus, any delay in commissioning directly translates to massive unrealized revenue.

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Mega-project performance analyses show that refining projects frequently suffer delays (one study noted ~50% of refining megaprojects run behind schedule).

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Globally, only a few major refinery projects reach completion each year (on the order of ~5 projects/year, as many countries add infrequent large new refineries or major upgrades).

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However, those that do proceed often experience delays around 1 year or more (e.g. several high-profile refineries in Asia and Middle East were delayed by 6–18 months).

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The annual opportunity cost from these delays is on the order of tens of billions of dollars, given the high daily values and number of projects.

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Daily Opportunity Loss (USD)

≈ $10–15 million per day (per refinery project, assuming ~150–200 kbpd capacity at ~$70–80/bbl product price)

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Projects per Year (global)

~5 projects/year (few new large refineries or major refinery upgrades annually worldwide)

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Average Delay per Project

~12 months (often 1 year or more delay on major refinery startups; many projects face schedule slips)

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Annual Opportunity Loss (USD)

≈ $15–20 billion/year (lost/refined product output revenue globally due to refinery project delays)

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