LNG Trains

LNG liquefaction trains in the 5–10 mtpa capacity range are among the most capital-intensive projects, often exceeding $5–10 billion each.

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A single 5 mtpa LNG train processes roughly 0.65 Bcf/day of gas; a 10 mtpa train ~1.3 Bcf/d.

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At recent LNG prices, this is on the order of $5–10 million in output value per day (depending on gas price volatility).

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LNG projects have a history of schedule overruns – for instance, Australian LNG mega-projects were hit by severe delays and cost inflation.

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Many LNG trains in the past decade (Australia, US, etc.) came online later than planned (often ~1–2 years late).

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Globally, the pace of new trains is only a few per year (roughly 2–3 LNG trains commissioned per year on average in the last 5 years).

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Each delayed train’s unrealized revenue can be in the low billions USD (a 1-year delay at ~$7M/day~ $2.5 billion).

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Summing across projects, we estimate annual opportunity loss on the order of ~$5–10 billion from LNG project delays.

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Daily Opportunity Loss (USD)

≈ $7–10 million per day (per 5–10 mtpa LNG train; ~0.8–1.0 Bcf/d gas throughput valued at $7–10/MMBtu)

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Projects per Year (global)

~2–3 trains/year (limited number of new large LNG trains reaching operation annually worldwide)

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Average Delay per Project

~12+ months (LNG megaprojects often 1–2 years behind schedule on average)

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Annual Opportunity Loss (USD)

≈ $5–8 billion/year (deferred LNG sales globally due to train commissioning delays)

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* If you are interested in our research and data sources, visit this link.

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