FPSOs

FPSOs are high-value offshore assets, often processing on the order of 100,000 barrels of oil per day (some new units exceed 200k bpd). This means each day of delay postpones millions of dollars of production.

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FPSO projects are notoriously delay-prone – for example, of 45 FPSOs installed worldwide from 2008–2012, 30 were delivered late.

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A deep-dive study of 9 recent FPSOs found a combined schedule overrun of >12 years, averaging roughly 16months delay per FPSO . Globally, industry data show an uptick in FPSO awards in recent years (e.g. 27 awards during 2017–2019, ~9 per year) , so on the order of 5–10 FPSO projects reach FID annually.

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The unrealized revenue from these delayed start-ups is very large given the high daily output and lengthy delays.

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Daily Opportunity Loss (USD)

≈ $5–6 million per day (per FPSO, based on ~100k bbl/d at ~$60/bbl)

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Projects per Year (global)

≈ 6–10 FPSOs/year (e.g. 27 FPSO awards in 2017–2019, rebound to 10 in 2021)

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Average Delay per Project

~16 months (~480 days on average) – significant schedule slippage is common for FPSOs

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Annual Opportunity Loss (USD)

≈ $20–25 billion/year (unrealized revenue globally from delayed FPSO startups, calculated as daily loss × projects × delay)

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* If you are interested in our research and data sources, visit this link.